基于H-P滤波法、ARIMA和VAR模型的库区滑坡位移综合预测     

孟蒙  陈智强  黄达  曾彬  陈赐金 《岩土力学》2016,37(Z2):552-560

受库水位涨落及降雨等影响,库区滑坡位移表现出明显的周期性。基于位移时间序列分析,将滑坡监测位移分解为趋势项与周期项之和。趋势项反映滑坡变形的长期趋势,其主要受滑坡本身地质结构等因素影响。周期项反映滑坡变形的波动性,其主要受外部因素影响。以三峡库区巫山塔坪滑坡为例,考虑长江水位与降雨量影响,采用H-P滤波法从滑坡位移中分解出趋势项及周期项,利用差分自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）对趋势项进行平稳处理并计算趋势项预测值,利用向量自回归模型（VAR）计算周期项预测值。趋势项预测值与周期项预测值之和为滑坡位移预测值。与实际监测值及多种方法分析比较,表明综合预测所得结果能较好反映滑坡变形的趋势性和波动性,位移预测效果较好。  相似文献   

山东半岛近岸海带养殖活动对水体光学吸收特性的影响          下载免费PDF全文

姜珊珊  黄海军  董玉国  刘艳霞  严立文  王启飞  李冰 《海洋科学》2023,47(10):10-24

为了研究近岸海带养殖活动对水体光学特性的影响,本文选取山东半岛黑泥湾海域为典型研究区,利用2021年4月和8月在该区的9站同步观测数据,分析其总悬浮颗粒物、藻类颗粒物、非藻类颗粒物以及有色溶解有机物的吸收特性,并计算各组分对总吸收系数的贡献率,同时采用Quasi-analytical algorithm (QAA)算法借助MODIS影像反演了水体总吸收系数,结合实测数据获得了黑泥湾水体吸收特性的季节变化情况。结果表明,有海带养殖季节表层水体藻类颗粒物、非藻类颗粒物、总颗粒物和有色溶解有机物的吸收系数明显大于无海带养殖季节,且春季海带养殖区水体的总吸收系数大于无海带养殖区;海底表层沉积物的再悬浮造成底层吸收系数较大,而在春季成熟期的海带汇聚较大量的有机物质导致中层藻类颗粒物吸收系数相对较高;参考波长向红波移动,QAA_v5算法能够较好地估算该区表层水体吸收系数,且在海带养殖季节水体组分会影响到更长的波段特征。本研究可为深入了解海带养殖对水体各组分浓度和分布、碳循环以及水生生态系统的结构和功能的影响提供参照,并有助于提高近岸水体组分的遥感反演精度。  相似文献   

Impacts of maintenance channel dredging in a northern Adriatic coastal lagoon. I: Effects on sediment properties,contamination and toxicity     

Roberta Guerra  Andrea PasterisMassimo Ponti 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

Conservation and management of coastal lagoons envisage direct human intervention. To prevent siltation and to preserve the hydrodynamics features of the lagoon system, the inner channels undergo regular maintenance dredging.  相似文献   

青海可可西里地区综合科学考察初报     

李炳元 《山地学报》1990,(3)

本区至今还是综合科学考察的空白区。为查明基本情况,1989年夏以乘汽车路线考察方式穿行该区而作了预查,搜集了当地地质、地理、生物等基本资料。经考察发现,区内野生动物资源丰富,上新世以来火山活动普遍,湖泊众多,矿产资源可能有良好前景;所在区又为自然地域和地质构造的重要界线,对青藏高原研究具有重大科学价值。  相似文献   

宁南县城后山泥石流综合治理工程财务管理     

徐素琼 《山地学报》1990,(4)

宁南县城后山泥石流综合治理工程总预算为159.00万元,实际拨款129.01万元。为用好这笔资金,严格了财务管理制度,采取了专项资金专人管理措施,加强对用工、材料、资金和施工等的管理,使工程不但超计划数量完成,而且未追加投资,做到了费省效宏,较好地发挥了投资效益。  相似文献   

棉铃虫发生发展与气候条件的关系研究进展     

黄健  健 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2024,18(1):1-11

棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera 属鳞翅目夜蛾科，是一种世界性的重大害虫，在世界各地均有分布。因其具有远距离迁飞，繁殖力强等特点，条件适宜时常大面积暴发成灾，给农业生产带来较大损失。摸清棉铃虫生活习性、种群变化规律是棉铃虫防治的前提条件。由于棉铃虫是变温昆虫，气候条件对其生长发育、成灾机制等产生极大影响。因此，本文系统综述了气候变暖对棉铃虫影响的研究进展，包括棉铃虫生长发育、体色变化、繁殖、滞育、飞行、越冬、与作物的互作关系等方面，并对未来研究重点进行了展望。以期对棉铃虫的综合治理提供理论依据。  相似文献   

基于惯导/天文高精度定姿方法     

杨生  孙付平  陈坡  秦士琨 《测绘学院学报》2009,(2)

研究了利用惯性导航系统与天文导航系统进行组合定姿的方法;构造了惯导/天文组合导航系统的状态方程和量测方程;采用卡尔曼滤波技术设计了惯导/天文组合定姿算法。设计飞行器的典型飞行轨迹,通过数学仿真对该算法的有效性进行了验证。结果表明,天文导航能够有效地补偿惯性导航因陀螺漂移带来的误差,非常适用于飞行器的高精度定姿。  相似文献   

三维城市模型的研究与实践(英文)   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

朱庆  胡明远  张叶廷  杜志强 《地球空间信息科学学报》2009,12(1):18-24

The way we interact with spatial data has been changed from 2D map to 3D Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE). Three-dimensional representations of geographic information on a computer are known as VGE, and in particular 3D city models provide an efficient way to integrate massive, heterogenous geospatial information and georeferenced information in urban areas. 3D city modeling (3DCM) is an active research and practice topic in distinct application areas. This paper introduces different modeling paradigms employed in 3D GIS, virtual environment, and AEC/FM. Up-to-date 3DCM technologies are evolving into a data integration and collaborative approach to represent the full spatial coverage of a city, to model both aboveground and underground, outdoor and indoor environments including man-made objects and natural features with 3D geometry, appearance, topology and semantics. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( No. 40871212, No. 40671158), the Leading Academic Discipline Project of Shanghai Educational Committee( No.J50104).  相似文献   

Composite suspended sediment particles in river systems: their incidence,dynamics and physical characteristics     

J. C. Woodward  D. E. Walling 《水文研究》2007,21(26):3601-3614

Most of the existing data on the effective particle size characteristics of fluvial suspended sediment derive from instantaneous sampling methods that may not be representative of the overall suspended sediment loads. This presents difficulties when there is a need to incorporate effective particle size data into numerical models of floodplain sedimentation and sediment‐associated contaminant transfer. We have used a field‐based water elutriation apparatus (WEA) to assemble a large (36 flood) database on the time‐integrated nature of the effective and absolute particle size characteristics of suspended sediment in four subcatchments of the River Exe basin of southwest England. These catchments encompass a wide range of terrains and fluvial environments that are broadly representative of much of the UK and temperate, low relief northwest Europe. The WEA provides important data on the physical characteristics of composite particles that are not attainable using other methods. This dataset has allowed, for the first time, detailed interbasin comparisons of the time‐integrated particle size characteristics of suspended sediment and reliable estimates of the contribution of five effective size classes to the mean annual suspended sediment load of the study catchments. The suspended sediment load of each river is dominated by composite rather than primary particles, with, for example, almost 60% (by mass) of the sediment load of the River Exe at Thorverton transported as composite particles > 16 µm in size. All the effective size classes contain significant clay components. A key outcome of this study is the recognition that each catchment has a distinctive time‐integrated effective particle size signature. In addition, the time‐integrated effective particle size characteristics of the suspended loads in each of the catchments display much greater spatial variability than the equivalent absolute particle size distributions. This indicates that the processes producing composite particles vary significantly between these catchments, and this has important implications for our understanding of the dynamics of suspended sediment properties. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于Sentinel-2A和GF-1B遥感数据的海岸带水产养殖识别方法比较          下载免费PDF全文

董迪  王跃  魏征  曾纪胜 《应用海洋学学报》2024,43(1):064-074

近海水产养殖为人类提供优质的动物蛋白，对海洋经济高质量发展具有重要意义。卫星遥感技术已被广泛用于海岸带水产养殖的监测，但目前相关的研究聚焦基于单一传感器卫星数据并使用单一信息提取算法而忽略与不同卫星传感器以及处理方法之间的比较。本研究以北莉岛东北部为研究区，基于多光谱Sentinel 2A卫星和高分一号B（GF 1B）卫星数据，分别使用自适应阈值法、支持向量机监督分类法以及多尺度分割面向对象分类法，开展海岸带人工水产养殖区的识别。研究表明，更高空间分辨率的GF 1B卫星对人工水产养殖水网密集区的提取正确率远优于Sentinel 2A卫星；基于高空间分辨率GF 1B卫星，多尺度分割面向对象分类法的正确率最高，为94.65%，优于支持向量机监督分类法的94.45%和自适应阈值法的84.62%；自适应阈值法更适用于中等空间分辨率卫星数据的水产养殖信息提取，其提取的水产养殖水面的面积与目视解译提取的面积差异小于4%。针对单个养殖池使用情况的业务化监测需使用高空间分辨率卫星数据，而大范围水产养殖面积的变化分析则可应用中等空间分辨率卫星数据。  相似文献